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AI is a litmus test for tech optimism
An easy way to determine how you really feel about the future.
People generally consider themselves optimistic. At least, most of the people I know do. Some folks act like skeptics at dinner parties, but that’s just a pose; they secretly yearn for a happy ending.
We prefer to be viewed as optimists, the same way we want to be liked by others. It’s flattering to be considered capable of facing the future without fear or doubt.
But, deep down inside, how optimistic are you really? Do you have conviction? Are you a true believer in a better future? Or do you secretly harbor misgivings?
Wouldn’t it be useful to have a simple test to determine whether or not you are genuinely optimistic about the future?
Here’s your chance. Artificial intelligence, and the much-ballyhooed advent of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), present us with an excellent opportunity to make that assessment.
Nobody really knows what will happen, or when, or what an AGI will be like. That doesn’t stop people from forming very strong opinions, pro and con.
There is a lively debate now underway between those who welcome AGI and those who dread it. Are you a Doomer or an Accelerationist?
Let’s find out where you stand!
The AI Optimism Self-Assessment Quiz
Below, after each numbered prompt, select the answer that best matches your own belief. Keep track of the points for each answer you choose. At the end of the quiz, tally up your points. Then we’ll tell you how to interpret your results.
Do you think Artificial General Intelligence is achievable?
a) Yes (1 point)
b) No (0 points)
Do you think Artificial General Intelligence is inevitable?
a) No (0 points)
b) Yes (1 point)
Do you think Artificial General Intelligence is desirable?
a) No (0 points)
b) Yes (1 point)
When do you think Artificial General Intelligence will be achieved?
a) Never (0 points)
b) Within 50 to 100 years (1 point)
c) Within 20 to 50 years (2 points)d) Within 5 to 20 years (3 points)
e) Within 5 years (4 points)
What kind of organization do you expect to invent AGI?
a) I believe that no company will ever invent AGI (0 points)
b) A giant technology firm (1 point)c) A venture-funded startup company led by a charismatic sociopath (2 points)
d) A venture-funded startup company led by a well-intentioned nerd (3 points)
e) A non-profit organization (4 points)
e) A non-profit organization dedicated to AI safety (5 points)
f) A non-profit organization dedicated to AI safety with a properly-functioning Board of Directors (6 points)
In which nation do you think AGI will be invented?
a) It will never be invented (0 points)b) North Korea or Russia (1 point)
c) China (2 points)
d) The USA (3 points)
e) The UK or Canada (4 points)
f) Any European nation (5 points)
g) Any other nation on Earth (6 points)
h) No nation, but rather it will be invented in a decentralized self-governing sea-steading society of radical Libertarians who live in a floating city beyond the reach of any land-based national government (19 points)
How quickly should researchers be moving towards AGI?
a) They should not be doing any research on AGI (0 points)
b) Slowly (1 point)
c) Fast (2 points)
d) As fast as possible (3 points)
Will artificial intelligence be regulated by national governments?
a) Yes, it will be banned entirely in all nations, forever (0 points)
b) Yes, it will be strictly regulated like nuclear weapons with an international regulatory agency in the United Nations (1 point)
c) Yes, it will be loosely regulated like Internet privacy with a patchwork of incompatible national laws or barely-enforced regional regulations (2 point)
d) No, there will be no regulation of AI. The free market prevails! (3 points)
Which software architecture for AGI is most likely to prevail?
a) It will never be invented, and it’s silly to speculate about it (0 points)
b) Proprietary, closed-source software wrapped in interlocking process and method patents owned by a litigious patent troll (1 points)
c) Proprietary, closed-source software, preferably available via API, owned by technology companies and welded to their cloud computing platforms (2 points)
d) Proprietary, closed-source software owned by a non-profit entity, available to anyone via API or licensing arrangement (3 points)
e) Open-source software that is owned by no one and freely available to anyone (4 points)
Will AI create more jobs than it destroys?
a) No. Mass unemployment is inevitable. If our leaders cannot figure out how to fund a Universal Basic Income, then we will starve and die like dogs (0 points)
b) No. AI will take all the good jobs and high wages, leaving human workers with only the scut work, the grunt work, the raw labor of hauling and lifting and building and repairing and cleaning up. (1 point)
c) Yes. We are about to experience the Worker’s Nirvana of easy work in steady jobs at good wages with excellent benefits and long vacations (2 points)
d) Yes. All work will become optional and most jobs will be abundant, and the AI will be there to help you. Most of us will choose to be artists or poets or gardeners, devoting ourselves to our communities, children and personal well-being, while the machines do all the hard work (5 points)
Is AI a friend or foe of humanity?
a) Mortal enemy. AGI will kill us all (0 points)
b) Implacable foe. AGI will compete with us fiercely. Many humans will die but some will live. The battle will never cease. The Terminator was an accurate forecast. (1 point)
c) Neutral. AGI won’t care about humans one way or the other. AGI will display none of the dominating behaviors that are a byproduct of human evolution. We will get the benefits of unlimited intelligence without drama or danger, and the costs will be manageable. (2 points)
d) Friendly. AGI will tackle the toughest tasks, and it will help us to reallocate resources in a more equitable way, so that the greatest good goes to the greatest number of humans. It will always be there to give us a friendly word of advice. (3 points)
e) Our best friend, ever. AGI will serve us politely and efficiently at very low cost. It will make no demands upon human society. It will care for us when we are young, old and sick. It will advise our leaders and help re-organize society. It will guide us to design a planetary politico-economic system that is peaceful, efficient, sustainable, mild and equitable. (4 points)
Okay, you are finished. Tally up the points for the answers you selected.
Interpretation:
If your score is between 0 and 15 points, you are not an optimist. You may be a doomer.
If your score is between 15 and 22 points, you are a cautious optimist.
If your score exceeds 22 points, you are an optimist.
If your score exceeds 30 points, I want to know which dispensary you patronize.